Pangasius Exports Up 10%: Challenges in the US Market and Value Chain Upgrades

In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam's pangasius exports maintained their growth momentum, reaching a turnover of $1.3 billion (a 10% year-on-year increase). However, significant market polarization and mounting pressure from the United States underscore the urgent need for the industry to transition from price and volume-based competition toward a sustainable value chain.

Polarized Export Performance

Disparities in purchasing power and trade barriers have reshaped the proportions of key export markets for Vietnamese pangasius:

China: Maintained its leading position with $357 million in the first 7 months (up 31%). In the first half (H1) of 2026 alone, this market reached $299 million (a 35% increase), accounting for 27% of total pangasius export turnover.
United States: Experienced an 8% decline over 7 months, totaling only $189 million. Notably, July 2026 saw a sharp drop of 28% down to $22 million (H1 reached $167 million, down 5%).
CPTPP Markets: Recorded positive signals with $196 million in H1, representing a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

The "Dual Challenge" in the US Market

The hurdles for Vietnamese pangasius in the US stem from a combination of compounding tariffs, technical barriers, and rising domestic protectionism:

Compounding Tariffs: Since July 24, 2026, Vietnamese goods face an additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301 measures (following a previous temporary 10% surcharge lasting 150 days).
Anti-Dumping Duties (POR21): According to the final results announced on August 12, 2026 (covering the review period of August 1, 2023, to July 31, 2024), duty rates increased significantly: Bien Dong Seafood ($1.00/kg); NTSF ($0.38/kg); Can Tho Seafood and Nam Viet ($0.84/kg); and the Vietnam-wide rate ($2.39/kg).
Technical Barriers: Imported shipments remain subject to strict compliance and inspections under the USDA's catfish inspection program.
Protectionist Threats: The proposed Domestic Market Recovery Act of 2026 (S.4945) suggests an 84-million-kg annual quota for imported pangasius (HS 0304.62.00). The proposed tariffs are 50% for in-quota volumes and up to 200% for out-of-quota shipments.

Strategic Directions for Enhancing Resilience

To mitigate risks and bolster long-term competitiveness, the pangasius industry must upgrade its growth model across several core pillars:

Market Diversification: Reduce dependence on the US market by expanding market share in China, leveraging Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to deeply penetrate the CPTPP bloc, and building a balanced market portfolio.
Farming Control: Avoid massive farming area expansions when raw material prices rise to prevent oversupply crises. Strictly comply with stocking density limits and strengthen linkages between farmers and processing enterprises.
Digitalization & Traceability: Implement digital transformation in farming data management to rapidly adapt to the increasingly stringent food safety, environmental, and social standards of importing nations.
Value Chain Upgrades: Shift from basic frozen fillets to deep-processed, high-value-added products. Optimize production costs through efficient energy and water use, waste control, and byproduct utilization.

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